Most of the time our algorithm just works and the Estimated Value seems obvious. The Batman (Black Chrome) [Fall Convention] Pop for example makes sense at its current $37 –
But then there are other cases. For example, items that are not near mint. Normally we discard them. But what about an item that has some light damage that sells for more than the current Estimated Value? We currently don’t include those as we do not include their counterpart (an item that is not near mint and sells below the Estimated Value). In the case of that chrome Batman that is OK as there are enough price points. But what about if there are not enough sales?
Take the RV Walker (Bloody) (Freddy Funko), an SDCC special from 2013. They only made 12 of them! So transactions are rare. Here is what we have –
Then recently one sold but for much more money. In fact for more than 4x that!
The listing text explains that “there is some fading on the side panel and a slight mark on the lower front near the sticker”. Normally this one gets excluded from our calculation but here we are reconsidering. This is an extreme case – both in terms of rarity and value difference and we generally like to hear you more this year. What do you think? Let us know in the comments if you would –
- Include in the calculation?
- Mark the price up to $4,300 (this sale) or somewhere in the $3,000s?
- and since we are asking, why would anybody sell an item like this not rotate the main image…?
This one shows once again valuing is more an art than a science. If you have comments on any other valuation comments please send us a link and your questions/ suggestion using the green button on the right (we like to keep this discussion on the item at hand, this Freddy!)
19 thoughts on “The finer details of Valuations”
Something like this that is an extreme rarity should be included
I think it should be included on the list. It is 12 pieces limited edition, and the price is a reference in these cases, that means that a perfect box will be most expensive, and the price will increase over time. As collectors we always have different points of view, and every situation must be evaluated carefully. Last week I sent to admin a Freddy Funko Orange Hair limited to 48 pieces without box, because the price was 2-3 higher than the list price, and I had my doubts even knowing that it had no box. I prefered to seek a second opinion. As you said is not a science.
I think it’s important to gauge prices not just on one value, problem is people are getting less than they should for a mint pop when the values should be mint or not mint (minor defects). It’s tough as I think your prices are jumping way to much. There should not be a price jump of 60 up then next day 100 down. We are seeing this a lot lately which is making this site not trust worthy on value.
Hi Steve, so include this transaction or not?
To your other point we think we now have a better pricing algorithm but I agree that there are certain instances where it fails (mostly large moves in the most recent week based on only one price point). We have a fix for that going out mid next week. Can I please ask you to report issues that you see using the green contact button here on the right?
There are a lot of factors when it comes to these, and the biggest is, is it real.
There are a lot of fakes when it comes to the super rare. I have spotted many fake Gold Hoppers or Ivan Dragos, and have been very diligent when it comes to authentication.
We need to check the sellers and make sure they are reputable as well. Just last week I saw a fake Metallic Dumbo that sold for over $2,000. It was a new pose painted with metallic paint.
We also have to look at if the sale was real. There have been a lot of occasions where the sale comes in to us to look at, but it was canceled, or a fake price to inflate the value.
Very rare pops with box damage that sell for well more than estimated value set off red flags to me. What criteria does the pop fit?
I would say in sales like this we should talk to the community on the facebook page before we commit one way or the other. There are a lot of very aware people who could help authenticate and make sure the Pop is real, and the box is real. I would hate to see a head swap or a repaint affect the value of an entire line one way or the other.
So, in short, (too late) it should be a case by case basis that would factor in variables to make sure everything is as accurate as can possibly be.
With this one, (I looked it up) it looks like a best offer was accepted, and it didn’t really sell for this price.
I would also recommend reaching out to the seller and seeing if they would disclose what the actual sale price was. Explain that you represent Pop Price Guide and HobbyDB and see if the are willing to share that information. For all we know, it could have been accepted at $700.
All valid points. The only one where I would differ is that even a sale of a fake is a price signal. While the seller probably knew something is a fake the buyer did not and was willing to pay that price. I am not advocating to keep that kind of Price Point as it would create other problems but it is a good indication of what non-expert attribute to a POP.
This is a good discussion.
Matbar, I agree with you, we have to consider all the information as we could. In this case, if the Pop! is real, Funko only produced 12 pieces, so I agree with the sale price, even if the box has a slight damaged. It is very difficult putting a price on the real grials like this, there are no rules, and in my humble oppinion the price guide is a simple reference as long as the figure will be real.
So it says it sold for $4,300, but actually sold for a different amount? Is this common? If so that is another problem.
This is definitely an exception. For items this rare, only 12 made in 2013, so after 7 years there might be only 11 left in existence, we don’t know. I think condition should not be considered as strictly. Anything in limited edition of 100 and under should be given a bit more flexibility. But again, it OOB (out of box) or completely crushed box should possibly still be excluded from algorithm.
Thanks for a practical solution.
I think it should be included because it’s a rarity. But maybe include some notes regarding its condition (if not mint). I wonder if any of the 11 remaining Pops have been sold outside of eBay. Aside from eBay, where else does PPG currently collect sales data from? Thanks!
We like to take any price we can, i.e. anywhere the site gives us access to pricing via an API. We are talking to some retailers that also sell a wide range of POPs about them giving us their data and are testing a few other sources.
Everything should be included if they are out there and legit, no matter how many there are. They have some value.
I still think the algorithm is a mess. I have Pops that fluctuate so much day to day it’s crazy. One sale should not drop or raise value by $70 or more. That’s not how estimated value works.
That depends on the item and what that new sale was. Can you please send us examples via the Green button here of items that you think are reacting too strongly?
It’s pretty much anything valued over $50 is constantly going up and down by large increments, mostly down.
It follows transactions and should be as much up as down unless there is a wider trend. That being said we are the weights of more recent transactions, namely the 7 day band to reduce the weight a little bit of the most recent transactions. With the new platform we now have the ability to react to different type of curves (there are more than 20,000 Funko items, each of them with their own characteristics – now being able to build rules for groups of these will make the algorithm significantly better over time).
I would chalk it up to a situation you just can’t address that well so default to “treat it the same as everything else”. Anything that rare defies “traditional” pricing. It truly boils down to “the price is what I say it is and is the other side willing to pay”.
If I have a 12 piece item and I say its $10k, then that’s the price, and anyone buying something like that would probably realize “well PPG says it’s only $5k” isn’t going to be a persuasive argument. Anyone with something that rare in their collection also would realize that any number given on PPG is a suggestion at best.
Plus by it’s very nature this only affects a small number of people. So it’s a good thought experiment but not that practical to come up with a solution to a rare problem.
Use standard deviation…if the price low or high is way outside of the excepted norm, then discard the data.
In the case of the RV Walker…2 walking dead fanboys going at it doesn’t constitute a price increase. I’m sure it’ll be entertaining when they go to sell…