As a price guide, pricing is what we do. We always want to ensure that we are doing the best job possible with accurate, up-to-date information that you can’t find anywhere else. As a result, the Pop Price Guide database is already home to more than five million price points.
Despite the growth, we were held back by our previous Estimated Value Algorithm, which was five years old and hard-coded to the old site, making it, for example, unable to use any price point older than 90 days.
On Thursday, we released an updated version of the PPG Estimated Value Algorithm. These updates include the ability to allow price points that were older than 90 days and the proper inclusion of third party prices from other marketplaces (such as hobbyDB). Those older price points that we have now added have a lower weight to ensure that price trends are properly taken into account, for example when an item increases in value over time (to avoid what is called Underfitting).
As with some of our recent changes, there were some unintended hiccups with this latest release. This update had a substantial impact on the value of about 1-2 percent of the items in the guide, basically items with the biggest value shifts. For these items, price points older than 90 days were over-weighted and therefore were skewing Estimated Values, mostly to be too low.
A fix for this is set to be released in the next few days and should correct this issue. We’ll post an update on our social channels as soon as everything looks good to go.
We believe that once this fix is released, we will have a much more accurate algorithm. Let us know if you encounter any possible but rare inaccurate patterns like a an S-Shape (price increased, then decreased and then increased significantly in a short period of time).
Why else is all of this exciting?
We like to build on that old saying about the more data the better, specifically, the more charts the better! The earlier update allowed us to add the Top Ten Over Time chart in your Showcase and when we have more time to do the same for all of your Collection, all of your Wish List and more.
In case you have not seen yet, this is the new Top 10 Over Time chart in your Showcase
With this update, we are now in a position to do much more fun stuff! Here are mockups of some of these new features we like to bring to you –
Ability to select different price sources (in this mockup you can compare different price sources, say eBay and hobbyDB as well as exclude price sources. At a glance, it’s easy to see that you should buy on the green market and sell on the blue one!
Ability to Zoom in what particular price point changed the Estimated Value at any time
See your own purchase(s) in context
The ability to compare against other items or even series
We want to hear from you
As always, we are here to answer any questions or concerns. Reach out to us by clicking the vertical green Contact hobbyDB button located on the right hand side of every page.